Traditional television in South Africa is expected to lose almost R6 billion in revenue over the next five years, according to a new industry forecast reported by Moneyweb.
The report found that the money is moving to digital platforms. Revenue from online video services is forecast to rise from R6.4 billion to R9.2 billion by 2030.
In a surprise finding, the number of streaming subscriptions is expected to drop. The report said subscriptions could fall from six million in 2025 to 5.8 million in 2030, even as streaming revenue grows.
Even after its decline, traditional TV is still expected to earn more than three times what streaming services earn in 2030.
The forecast covers the whole entertainment and media market. It said the market will grow from R301.8 billion in 2025 to R352.4 billion by 2030. That adds R50.6 billion in revenue.
The yearly growth rate for the market is 3.2%. According to the report, this figure hides very different results for traditional and digital media businesses.
Connectivity is by far the biggest part of the market. Revenue from mobile and fixed internet services is expected to climb from R183.6 billion to R215.6 billion. By 2030, that would be about 60% of the whole entertainment and media market.
The report said video already makes up 79.4% of all data used in the country. Smartphones, streaming apps and connected TVs have changed how people use the internet.
Music, radio and podcasts are also expected to grow. Their combined revenue is forecast to rise from R8 billion to R10.6 billion, a yearly growth rate of 5.7%.
Music streaming is the main driver of that growth, helped by strong demand for local artists. In 2025, South African artists made up 70% of the 10 most streamed artists in the country.
Radio still brings in a good share of revenue, but its growth is expected to be slower, the report said.
Cinemas are forecast to do better too. Their revenue is expected to rise from R757 million to just over R1 billion, which suggests people still enjoy watching films together.
Gaming and esports revenue is projected to grow from R10.3 billion to R12.7 billion over the same period.
South Africa remains the largest and most developed entertainment and media market in Africa. However, the report said it is growing much more slowly than other markets on the continent.
Kenya is forecast to grow by 5% a year and Nigeria by 6.9% a year. The report linked this to growing digital audiences and younger populations in those countries.
According to the report, local media companies will need to find profitable ways to reach and keep customers across many platforms, rather than relying only on bigger audiences.
Source: this article is based on reporting by Moneyweb. Image: Moneyweb. Written with the help of AI and published by the Tzaneen Voice Business desk. See our Editorial Standards.
Anelisa Nkuna covers business and money news for Tzaneen Voice. Anelisa reports on the rand, fuel prices, interest rates, jobs, Eskom, Transnet, farming and company results. The aim is simple: explain what the numbers mean for household budgets, small businesses and workers in South Africa.