South Africa’s car manufacturing industry could be wiped out within five years unless the country picks a clear policy direction. This is the warning from Automobile Association of South Africa CEO Bobby Ramagwede.
Ramagwede made the comments on Watts & Wheels, TechCentral’s motoring show, in an interview with William Kelly. The episode will be published in the coming days.
“I’ve given it five years. If we continue in the same vein, allowing this rampant importing of not just Chinese vehicles, vehicles from many a country, we’re going to decimate this sector,” Ramagwede told TechCentral.
Ramagwede, who has led the AA since October 2024, named specific car makers. He said BMW operates in South Africa “because they’re doing us a favour” and that Toyota has “found a comfortable home”.
He said Volkswagen is “sitting on the edge of their seat, probably ready to go”. He said Mercedes-Benz has “got one foot out the door”.
“I cannot blame anyone,” he said. “We haven’t decided on what our policy direction is.”
According to TechCentral’s analysis, Chinese brands took 19.3% of car and light commercial vehicle sales in October among makers that report to Naamsa. A year earlier, their share was 16.1%.
One car maker has already left. Chery took over Nissan’s Rosslyn plant outside Pretoria in July.
The car makers that responded said they remain committed to the country. “Volkswagen is committed to South Africa,” said Andile Dlamini, VW’s head of group communications.
Dlamini said the Kariega plant builds the Polo for export to about 38 countries. VW will launch the Tengo compact SUV there in February 2027, after a R4 billion investment first announced in April 2024.
BMW said its presence “is grounded in commercial considerations”. It said its Rosslyn plant built more than 79 000 vehicles in 2025. It is the only BMW plant making the X3 plug-in hybrid for world markets.
Toyota said it “cannot speculate on specific timelines” but that its “commitment to local manufacturing remains unwavering”. It has put R10.4 billion into its Prospecton plant for the new Hilux.
BMW, Toyota and Ford all called for policy certainty. Mercedes-Benz South Africa had not responded at the time TechCentral published its report.
Ford also rejected Ramagwede’s view that its local output could fall to “next to nothing” if South Africa signed a trade deal with Thailand. Neale Hill, president of Ford’s Africa operations, said this “does not reflect our position or current plans”. He said the Silverton plant exports the Ranger to more than 100 markets.
Naamsa, which represents vehicle makers and importers, also disputed the timeline. “We would not characterise the industry’s future through a five-year countdown,” chief policy officer Tshetlhe Litheko told TechCentral.
Ramagwede said the car industry makes up about 5% of GDP. “If we were to allow this industry to fall apart without a clear design around how we catch the casualties, it would be a reckless move,” he said.
He said manufacturers also deal with unreliable electricity, “questionable water supply” and poor roads. He pointed to Australia, where the last car plant closed in 2017, as a country that handled the decline in a more structured way.
Ramagwede said he would not oppose leaving manufacturing behind if there was a clear plan to replace that 5% of GDP. “What are you going to do, mine some more?” he asked.
The automotive masterplan is under review. Litheko said the industry sees the 2027 budget speech as the moment it expects clarity on the outcome of the policy review.
Source: this article is based on reporting by TechCentral. Image: TechCentral. Written with the help of AI and published by the Tzaneen Voice Technology desk. See our Editorial Standards.
Werner Jacobs covers technology for Tzaneen Voice. Werner reports on mobile networks, data prices, internet access, smartphones, apps, AI, cybersecurity and South African tech companies. Each story explains what a new product, price change or policy means for ordinary users in South Africa.