The Department of Electricity and Energy has denied that its public consultation on 5.2GW of new nuclear power is a charade. The denial came at an EE Business Intelligence webinar on Thursday.
Energy analyst Chris Yelland, a long-time critic of new nuclear build, moderated the webinar. He suggested that Minister Kgosientsho Ramokgopa had already made up his mind.
“I must put it categorically that this is not a charade. There is no predetermined decision that has been made,” said Zizamele Mbambo, the department’s deputy director-general for nuclear energy.
“Rest assured, this process is done in good faith. The minister is determined to consider public input before taking a decision,” Mbambo said.
Two days earlier, at the Nuclear and Clean Energy Conference, Ramokgopa said: “We are going to build nuclear in this country. Take us to court.”
“I get the impression, having read his speech in detail, that this is a charade, and that the decision has already been made in the minister’s mind,” Yelland said.
Mbambo said Ramokgopa would publish his intention to make a section 34 determination by the end of November. The public would then have 60 days to comment, followed by provincial roadshows.
Mbambo said a decision is due in April 2027. He said Eskom had submitted a feasibility report, and its road map has the first new unit online in 2036.
According to Mbambo, the 5.2GW is the first phase of a programme that could grow to 10GW. He said that scale is needed to justify local nuclear fuel facilities.
Rob Adam, a nuclear physicist who led the South African Nuclear Energy Corporation from 2006 to 2012, questioned the cost. He said a 5.2GW build at a low US$6 000 per kW would come to more than R500 billion.
Adam said making 20% of the build local would mean R100 billion of work. He said that would need R30 billion or more in guarantees.
He said that figure was twice the market value of South Africa’s listed construction industry. “Some of us who push localisation should sober up a little bit,” Adam said.
Adam proposed a build, own, operate and transfer model, with the vendor sharing the financial risk. He said this would avoid a repeat of the 2008 tender, which collapsed once the treasury saw the numbers.
Grové Steyn, managing director of Meridian Economics, said the reference case in the 2025 Integrated Resource Plan builds no new nuclear. He said the final “balanced plan” was not the result of modelling analysis.
Steyn also said megaprojects usually overrun their budgets by 120% or more.
Sonwabo Damba, introduced as a planner at the South African National Energy Development Institute, rejected claims that modellers had been pressured. He said the balanced plan “may not necessarily be the cheapest plan” but best met supply, cost and emissions needs.
Makoma Lekalakala, director of Earthlife Africa Johannesburg, said communities had not been properly informed. She warned of harm to water, tourism and fishing around Thyspunt in the Eastern Cape, one of Eskom’s two chosen sites.
“Nuclear is not clean. Nuclear is dirty. Nuclear is dangerous,” Lekalakala said.
Yelland also asked about the expert panel Ramokgopa announced in September 2024. Mbambo said the panel had advised the minister, but its term had expired.
Yelland said the panel’s full membership and advice had never been made public. He said he may lodge a Promotion of Access to Information Act request.
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Werner Jacobs covers technology for Tzaneen Voice. Werner reports on mobile networks, data prices, internet access, smartphones, apps, AI, cybersecurity and South African tech companies. Each story explains what a new product, price change or policy means for ordinary users in South Africa.