Rice prices in Asia have climbed to their highest level in two years, but South Africa still has enough stock, agricultural economist Wandile Sihlobo told News24.
Reuters reported that the price peak came from the El Niño weather pattern. Unusually dry weather has hurt rice harvests in countries such as India, the world’s largest rice exporter.
“Price increases also do not happen overnight, as South Africa still holds stocks that were purchased at significantly lower prices over the past few months,” Sihlobo said. He added that there is “truly no cause for concern” so far.
Sihlobo, who is also the presidential envoy on agriculture and land, said South Africa depends fully on imported rice. The country cannot grow the crop.
“We consume slightly more than a million tons of rice annually. We cannot grow rice ourselves due to our relatively dry environment; generally speaking, we are a semi-arid country,” he said.
Thailand is South Africa’s biggest supplier. Over the past five years it provided an average of 74% of the rice the country imported. India came second with an average share of 21%.
South Africa also buys rice from Pakistan, Vietnam, China, Australia, the US and Brazil.
Sihlobo said the price rise had so far been driven mostly by uncertain weather forecasts. He said this did not mean that current supplies were limited.
“When prices remain at a higher level for nearly a month, that is when one begins to get concerned. By that time, supplies purchased at higher prices will start entering the system,” he said.
An October report by the International Grains Council said world rice production is expected to shrink in 2026/27. It would be the first drop in more than ten years.
The council estimated the crop at 536 million tonnes, a 2% fall from the year before. This includes a 6 million tonne drop in India. The council said global stocks would stay at a “historically comfortable” level.
Local shoppers have been paying less for rice. According to Statistics SA, white rice was 9.7% cheaper in September than a year earlier.
That helped keep food price inflation at an average of 1.2%. In July, food inflation fell to a 16-year low of 0.9%, also helped by lower grain prices.
Tiger Brands, which owns the Tastic brand and is one of the country’s largest rice importers, told News24 it does not expect any rice shortages. The company said it was watching developments with its suppliers closely.
“International rice prices have risen in recent months, driven by a combination of higher freight costs, geopolitical uncertainty, and weather-related concerns in key producing countries,” the group said.
Tiger Brands said it knows consumers are under financial pressure. It said it was working on “operational efficiency and cost savings” across its supply chain to limit the impact.
Source: this article is based on reporting by News24. Image: News24. Written with the help of AI and published by the Tzaneen Voice Business desk. See our Editorial Standards.
Anelisa Nkuna covers business and money news for Tzaneen Voice. Anelisa reports on the rand, fuel prices, interest rates, jobs, Eskom, Transnet, farming and company results. The aim is simple: explain what the numbers mean for household budgets, small businesses and workers in South Africa.