Traders on Polymarket, an offshore online prediction market, are betting on who will become mayor in each of South Africa’s eight metros, TechCentral reported.
With a week to go before the 4 November local government elections, the market gave the DA’s Geordin Hill-Lewis a 96% chance of staying Cape Town mayor. It gave Helen Zille a 52% chance of winning Johannesburg.
No South African regulator oversees the platform. The country’s licensed bookmakers want it shut out, according to TechCentral.
On 27 October, Babalwa Lobishe was on 32% in Nelson Mandela Bay, just ahead of Retief Odendaal on 31%. In Tshwane, Cilliers Brink led Nasiphi Moya by 42% to 31%.
In eThekwini, Mxolisi Phakathi led Haniff Hoosen by 38% to 31%. Ekurhuleni was the most open race, with Khathutshelo Rasilingwane ahead on only 26%.
The market was more sure about Buffalo City, where Princess Faku was on 63%. In Mangaung, Bongani Mathae was on 55%.
Polymarket does not set odds like a bookmaker. Users buy and sell contracts from each other, much like shares on a stock exchange.
Each candidate has a “yes” and a “no” contract, priced between zero and one US dollar. A winning contract pays out one dollar, and a losing one pays nothing.
This means the price shows how likely traders think a result is. A Zille “yes” contract at 52 cents points to a 52% chance that she becomes mayor.
Trades are settled in pUSD, Polymarket’s own token. The company says it is backed one for one by USDC, a stablecoin linked to the US dollar.
Trading across the eight metro markets came to about $379 000. Johannesburg made up $135 000 of that, while Cape Town drew only $11 700.
Small markets like these are easier to move. Bloomberg reported in July that election markets on Polymarket and its US rival Kalshi can be pushed off course cheaply.
South Africans also do not vote for mayors directly. They vote for ward councillors and parties, and each new council then elects its mayor.
That first council sitting must take place within 14 days of the council being declared elected. Many councils are expected to be hung, so coalition talks will decide several metros.
South Africa is not on Polymarket’s list of blocked countries. Users in the US, the UK, France, Australia and Zimbabwe cannot open new bets.
South African law only allows online betting through totalisators and bookmakers licensed by provincial gambling boards. The law says nothing specific about prediction markets.
In July, News24 reported that more than R700 000 had been bet on the Johannesburg mayoral market. The South African Bookmakers’ Association (Saba) then published a policy paper on 27 July.
Saba called for prediction markets to fall under the country’s gambling laws. It warned that South Africa has no system to spot cheating in political betting markets.
The association said offshore operators avoid the tax and responsible gambling rules that local bookmakers must follow. It also said these platforms take gambling money and tax out of the country.
Until a proper legal framework exists, Saba wants prediction markets treated as part of the illegal offshore gambling market.
Polymarket’s rules settle the Johannesburg contract on the first person the city council elects as mayor. The contract stays open until the end of June 2027.
Source: this article is based on reporting by TechCentral. Image: TechCentral. Written with the help of AI and published by the Tzaneen Voice Technology desk. See our Editorial Standards.
Werner Jacobs covers technology for Tzaneen Voice. Werner reports on mobile networks, data prices, internet access, smartphones, apps, AI, cybersecurity and South African tech companies. Each story explains what a new product, price change or policy means for ordinary users in South Africa.