A very strong El Niño weather event could hit South Africa’s maize harvest and raise local maize prices, two North-West University economists said.
Professor Anmar Pretorius and senior lecturer Mariëtte Geyser said the current “super” El Niño is expected to peak towards the end of 2026. They said it should last through at least February 2027.
Their findings were published by The Conversation and republished by Moneyweb.
El Niño is caused by warmer sea temperatures in the Pacific Ocean. In southern Africa, it usually brings less summer rain and a higher risk of drought. The researchers said this often means poor maize harvests.
“The result is that many southern African countries may have to import more maize and prices will rise,” the economists wrote.
The pair studied daily maize futures prices in the US and South Africa from 1997 to 2024. They also looked at exchange rates and records of El Niño and La Niña events.
They said South African maize prices on the Johannesburg Stock Exchange usually follow prices on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange over the long run. The rand’s exchange rate and local supply also play a part.
During six La Niña periods, local prices stayed linked to US prices. Any gap between the two markets usually closed quickly, the study found.
But during three El Niño periods, local prices broke away from US prices. These were May 1997 to May 1998, October 2014 to April 2016, and May 2023 to April 2024.
The researchers said drought cut local harvests, so buyers competed for a smaller supply. This pushed South African prices up even when US prices stayed steady.
They said prices can also rise before any shortage happens. If traders expect a drought and a poor harvest, they may push prices up in advance.
South Africa produced about 9.5 million tonnes of white maize in the 2025/26 season, the economists said. White maize is mainly eaten by people. The country also produced 7.9 million tonnes of yellow maize for animal feed.
In the 2015/16 drought season, production fell to about 3.3 million tonnes of white maize. Yellow maize production dropped to about 4.3 million tonnes.
In good years, South Africa exports both types of maize. In bad years, it must import maize and pay the world price plus shipping costs. The researchers said these costs can raise the price of maize meal.
However, the economists said South Africa now holds much larger maize stocks than in past El Niño years. Current stocks are between one third and one fifth higher than at the start of two earlier El Niño years.
They said the country should still have enough maize at the end of the marketing season in April 2027. Local prices are unlikely to climb as high as the cost of importing maize, they added.
White maize is the bigger risk, according to the study. Less of it is traded around the world, so it costs more to import. If supplies run short, its price could rise sharply, as it did in 2016.
The researchers called on policymakers to strengthen early warning systems for farmers, traders and food processors. They also urged farmers and agribusinesses to keep enough grain stocks and use hedging tools where suitable.
Source: this article is based on reporting by Moneyweb. Image: Moneyweb. Written with the help of AI and published by the Tzaneen Voice Business desk. See our Editorial Standards.
Anelisa Nkuna covers business and money news for Tzaneen Voice. Anelisa reports on the rand, fuel prices, interest rates, jobs, Eskom, Transnet, farming and company results. The aim is simple: explain what the numbers mean for household budgets, small businesses and workers in South Africa.